Close call....

Well, exactly as advertised by the GFS two weeks ago, a big hurricane has come up the coast. Fortunately, the model was a bit off on just how close it'd get. As of now, it's racing north at 23mph, still packing 100mph winds with gusts to 130mph. Huge waves to the tune of 18 feet are expected this afternoon and swells up to 25 feet are expected just off shore tonight.

The far outer band is currently visible on radar, about to make landfall on Nantucket Island and eventually Cape Cod later this afternoon. We won't be getting anything here. At least not directly from the hurricane. Though if it keeps getting closer before turning away, we may get nailed by that outer band. Big storms are expected to fire up once again. In fact some already have over NYC and points north towards Boston. It's going to be interesting dynamically later as the front continues to draw the hurricane ever closer. The set-up is definitely there for some seriously nasty storms, but it's a question of is the shear too severe to allow storms to fire up like they did yesterday.

First major hurricane of the year

Bill has beefed up into a monster cat 4 storm. It's still not expected to hit any land, except Bermuda though. The latest recon found 150mph flight level winds in the eastern eyewall. The storm's wind field has also ballooned overnight, becoming quite huge today. Based on the satellite imagery, there still seems to be some dry air intrusion going on to the west, but that seems to be having very little effect on the health of the storm. W/o that, it might have been a 5 by now. Here be the stats:

Location: 18.7N 56.3W

Moving: WNW @ 18mph

Winds: 135mph gusting to 160mph

Pressure: 950mb

Eye diameter: 35miles

Wind field radii-

Hurricane force winds: up to 80 miles out

TS winds: up to 185 miles out

Bill becomes a cat. 2

This morning a huge eye has opened in Bill's core. The eyewall is looking very robust, as is the entire CDO, which is rather compact, compared to the eye itself atm. It's still on target to reach major hurricane status before the day is out, though the CDO is not that intense. Cloud tops are still in the mid range. Somewhere around 45,000 feet. Stats:

Location: 15.9N 51.2W

Moving: WNW @ 16mph

Winds: 105mph gusting to 130mph

Pressure: 963mb

Eye Diameter: 40 miles

Wind field radii-

Hurricane force winds: up to 40 miles

TS winds: up to 165 miles

With an eye that big and considering it's strength already. Any significant contraction would easily bump it up to cat 4 intensity... There have been no recon missions dispatched to Bill yet, because it's too far away, so no further data can be had just yet.

Satellite view of Bill (vis & IR)

There's no real reason for this post other than to show off these images XD Both are of Hurricane Bill at the exact same time.

First hurricane of the year

As expected, Bill, was upgraded to a hurricane last night and is still bulking up quickly. Though there is a large hole in the northern convective field, that shouldn't stay there for long. It's still expected to reach major hurricane status by Wednesday, and it's looking more and more likely that it'll be tomorrow when it happens. The stats:

Location: 14.1N 45.2W

Moving: WNW @ 16mph

Winds: 90mph gusting to 115mph

Pressure: 977mb

Wind field radii-

Hurricane force winds: up to 30 miles

TS winds: up to 145 miles

As for the path. It's looking more and more like it'll stay offshore, so yay for that. But not so lucky for Bermuda, because now they are dead center.

Crankin' up the heat! Three storms now...

Okay. First things first. TD3 became a tropical storm yesterday afternoon and is now beefing up quite nicely. Satellite presentation is looking good. The shear vanished a lot sooner than expected and this has resulted in a significant boost in forecast intensity. As a result, it should reach hurricane status later today. This storm is called Bill, and it looks like the GFS was right yet again. It could reach cat 4 status by Thursday. Also, the GFS is still bringing it up the coast. The consistency is starting to get a bit worrying. The prospect of getting nailed with what amounts to a 1938 repeat is scary as hell at best. Current stats:

Location: 12.1N 38.4W

Moving: WNW @ 16mph

Winds: 60mph gusting to 70mph

Pressure: 997mb

Wind field radius-

TS winds: up to 140 miles

Next up is Ana. This one still looks very very sickly, and will likely get destroyed by Bill's outflow once it really gets cranking. There is a recon scheduled to investigate it later. I rather doubt they'll find anything worthwhile. Anyway, it's stats are:

Location: 14.8N 55.8W

Moving: W @ 24mph

Winds: 40mph gusting to 50mph

Pressure: 1005mb

Wind field radius: up to 55 miles

And lastly is TD 4, which formed off Florida last night. This one isn't expected to have much time to beef up before coming ashore since it's so close to begin with. However, it is still forecast to pick up some strength. To the tune of 60mph winds since the Gulf if is untouched and very very warm. TD 4's stats:

Location: 28.7N 84.6W

Moving: NW @ 14mph

Winds: 35mph gusting to 45mph

Pressure: 1011mb

TS Ana & TD 3

Well, as of 11am, TD 2 has been upgraded to a tropical storm. It is forecast to intensify until just below hurricane status, as per the GFS guidance. Basically, it looks like the GFS nailed these two storms dead on. The stats on Ana:

Location: 14.3N 48.3W
Moving: W @ 16mph
Winds: 40mph gusting to 50mph
Pressure: 1005mb
Wind field radius: up to 70 miles

Now, these stats are a bit generous imo, as the satellite presentation is very weak at best in the convection department. But we shall see if it can flare up as nice as it did last night & keep that going long enough to stabilize.

Moving on to TD 3. This sucker is looking nice. Very nice as a matter of fact. Deep convection is everywhere, as is one large feeder band. However, the northwest quardent is heavily damaged by strong upper level winds atm. This should go away over the next day or two, giving this system plenty of room to bulk up. And it is expected to do that and then some. Rapid intensification is expected once the shear lessens, possibly reaching major hurricane status by day 5. TD 3's stats:

Location: 11.5N 34.0W
Moving: W @ 17mph
Winds: 35mph gusting to 45mph
Pressure: 1006mb

GFS still showing big trouble....

Apparently photobucket is being really stupid right now. I can't upload anything atm. But. I just wanted to note that the GFS is still showing a strong hurricane coming up the coast. Only a few things have changed. Namely the timing & location of landfall. The early morning of the 26th, here in NY instead of the Carolina's. I can't really tell how strong it actually is in the model output due to rather shoddy graphics available on the net, but it looks fairly beefy. I'm really wanting to see if the other models pick up on this when it gets within range....